The slightly lower number for January reflects smaller price increases for shelter and food, as well as a decrease in energy costs.

Goldman’s new 3.05% PCE forecast is a brutal reality check for the Fed—and it could stall rate cuts for months.

The headline CPI rose 0.2% on a monthly basis, less than economists had forecast, while the core – which excludes food and energy – was in line with estimates, at 0.3%. A 1.5%

Inflation is forecast to have fallen to a 2.4% annual rate in January from 2.7% in December in the latest government report on consumer prices to be issued Friday.

Core inflation, which excludes the more volatile costs of food and energy and is considered a better indicator of underlying price trends, decelerated last month. Core CPI inflation was 2.5% year over year in January.

The core CPI inflation rate fell to its lowest level since early 2021.